![]() ![]() The land bridge is one of two routes for Russia’s military supplies to Crimea and towns in southern Ukraine, according to Andrew Kramer, The Times’s Kyiv bureau chief. Three, and perhaps most significantly, Russia can more easily supply its troops in Crimea. Two, the territory includes a nuclear plant near the city of Zaporizhzhia that is a major producer of electricity. One, Ukraine is cut off from about half of its coastline. ![]() The territory that Russia controls gives it several strategic advantages. “The Ukrainians want to break the land bridge,” Julian Barnes, who covers intelligence agencies in Washington, told me. Since the larger war began last year, Putin has also taken control of territory that connects Crimea to Russia, including the port city of Mariupol and much of the Donbas region, in eastern Ukraine. The southern edge of the land bridge is the Crimean Peninsula, which Russian forces invaded and seized almost a decade ago. The counteroffensive could start at any point over the next several weeks. In today’s newsletter, I’ll preview the coming phase of the war, with help from colleagues covering it. A failed counteroffensive could cause Ukraine’s Western allies to wonder whether the war is winnable and potentially push Ukraine toward an unfavorable truce. A successful campaign by Ukraine, retaking territory that Russia now controls, could cause President Vladimir Putin to fear outright defeat and look for a face-saving peace deal. The outcome of that counteroffensive could shape the outcome of the war. The Russians know that a major attack is coming but not the form it will take. Today, Ukraine is similarly hoping to surprise Russia with the start of a spring or summer counteroffensive. ![]() and its allies tricked the Nazis into believing that an invasion of France would take place on a different part of the Atlantic coast than it did. ![]() The occupying force does not know when or where the attackers will strike. But a military trying to do so usually has one big advantage: surprise. Retaking land occupied by an enemy during war is a brutally difficult task. ![]()
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